What's Next for Cleveland?

Magic 103, Cavaliers 90. I guess amazing isn't happening in Cleveland this year. What ha-ha-happened? (Sorry, I should have taken out this line but I used to think Stuart Scott was cool)

Some are saying that Cleveland was over matched by Orlando and they just didn't have the talent. Others are saying that Stan Van Gundy just schooled Mike Brown on how to effectively coach a playoff series. (From previous posts, you should know my stance.) But let's not look back and point fingers on why Lebron fell short and how the NBA misses out on their dream match-up. Instead, where does Cleveland go from here?

First off, Cleveland’s in a very precarious position with Lebron’s contract expiring after next season. The problem is they’re going to have to decide between two competing ideologies. Do you construct your 2009-2010 team around James as if he is an aging veteran who needs to win now, or do you construct your team around the fact James is only 25 and needs players to build around him for the future. The key will be finding a balance point between these two ideologies. They need to treat next year like its must win, but can't mortgage their future to do so.

No matter what mindset they take, they have next to zero cap room. This past season would have been the year to use Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract to make a big move for a player like Shaquille O'Neal. Apparently they were happy with what they had and thought they were ready to win a championship. The fact the Cavs did nothing to build upon their team with Szczerbiak’s expiring contract, who was about as useful as Juwan Howard in the conference finals, only adds salt to the wound.

Now with their current cap situation, Cleveland probably won't have the flexibility to make the big kind of move they need to make. They do have the expiring contracts of Ben Wallace, Anderson Varejao, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but these contracts will be almost worthless because they will want as much free cap space for 2010. So the Cavs will want to keep these contracts so they can to make sure they can resign Lebron. Also, you can wipe out any team that thinks they have a chance in the Lebron James sweepstakes from being a Cleveland trade partner. Even if Cleveland does make a Godfather deal, teams will have the mindset, “Does this make Lebron more or less likely to stay.” While teams that feel they have no chance to land Lebron would probably still make the trade, that is only a real small portion of the league. Most teams are either competitive and not willing to trade with Cleveland, or are freeing up cap space to enter the Lebron sweepstakes themselves. So unless Cleveland finds some unsuspecting GM to dupe, trading is probably not an option.

In addition, Cleveland doesn't really have good options in free agency either, so they'll have to use the mid-level exception where they can go over the cap and pay any player the average league salary. For the Cavs, the type of player that could be the biggest bang for buck would be a versatile swing man. Number one on my list would be Ron Artest, who fits all of Cleveland’s criteria. He is a free agent who would be highly motivated to win a championship and could put them over the top. Artest has always had the reputation as a loose cannon but that helps Cleveland here because it brings his value down. Also, with Lebron being probably the best teammate in the league, chemistry shouldn't be an issue.

Artest would give them the ability to present match-up nightmares. They could go small with Artest and James at the 3 and 4, or they could go huge with James and Artest at the 2 and 3. Either way, Artest gives them the ability to completely dictate play with their opponent. There are other versatile swing men available like Trevor Ariza or Lamar Odom, but I don’t see them taking the pay cut to the mid-level exception.

If you are to take anything away from this article it is this: THE CAVS ARE IN TROUBLE NEXT YEAR!!!! (Especially under the assumption that they lacked the talent in 2009). No matter what happens, they still have another season of Lebron, so they’ve got that going for them…which is nice. But still, total consciousness aside, they’re going to have to be very creative and thrifty to improve their personnel this off season in order to keep Lebron, while at the same time having enough money to pay him.

But don't worry Cleveland. Even if you don't win the Championship next year or resign Lebron James, at least your not Detroit.

Memorial Day Weekend NBA Ramblings

With two games down in the Eastern and three games down in Western Conference Finals, it is definitely time for another NBA column. I can't remember a string of nights where there were so many great games back to back to back. All I can say is that I am thankful.

Speaking of things that I am thankful for from this past weekend:

Lebron James, Beer (even Keystone), Marv Albert's “YES” call, that new Dos Equis commercial, the NBA having 69 year old refs who are good at evening up series, Whiskey, Ron Jeremy (the NBA coach), NCAA Lacrosse Final Four Memorial Day Weekend (especially Quint Kessenich, with his insights and coaching corner), Cornell upsetting UVA in the semifinals (hopefully they can win one more for the Nard DAWG) and last but least Mike Brown...for being incompetent.

Thanks, Mike Brown for making games 1 and 2 so close. On this site we may already be notorious for giving certain people a continued hard time on the regular, but certain individuals give us no choice. Let me give a hypothetical situation. Say you’re a coach in the NBA with a rebound machine on your roster that has little to no offensive skill, but can be a good defensive match-up for the other team's best player.

How would you use this guy? Well, if you’re Mike Brown, you bring him in to stop the other team's power forward who plays more like a small forward. Yes, I'm talking about Rashard Lewis who spends most of his time away from the basket, effectively taking away player X's biggest strength of rebounding. In addition, now Lewis can take a breather on defense until it comes time to box out player X. So by playing player X, you are not effectively defending the Magic's small lineup, and at the same time you do nothing to punish the other team for going small against you. Rather, it is almost like you’re saying, “We know your main advantage is playing small, what other lineups can we play that take no advantage of this and encourage you to do this more.”

By the way, Player X is Ben Wallace but I could have tricked you and said player X was Anderson Varejao. At this point in his career, Ben Wallace is just a poor man's Anderson Varajao. Both Varejao and Wallace don't effectively guard Lewis, while subsequently doing nothing to challenge him on the other end either. How about going small with LBJ at power forward? This way you can rest your big guys and keep them fresh throughout the game.

The other thing I don't get is having Lebron James guard Rafer Alston the whole game. This is a clear case of Mike Brown trying to out coach himself. We know you’re a good defensive coach, but when another team has two swingmen (Lewis and Turkoglu) that can hurt you, why not put the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year on one of them. Seriously, this is about as smart as pinch running with Harold Baines (for non Orioles fans maybe I should have gone with pinch running with Mark McGuire). Lebron is your best defender and you’re using the logic that he is also your best help defender to use such an asinine strategy.

However, this raises a more important question: WHY ARE YOU ENCOURAGING YOUR TEAM TO HELP AGAINST ORLANDO. They have a bunch of guys who just want to sit back and shoot threes. Look at Hedo Turkoglu, he relies on a stepback jumper as his only move, almost as badly as Seth Rogen relies on his dice move to knock up Katherine Heigl. Cleveland's defensive strategy should be to play up on all of Orlando's players and to help as little as possible. Don't let them play to their strengths and shoot 3's. Make them beat you off the dribble. You have 3 serviceable centers with 6 fouls to give each. So rather than help on Howard, single cover him and put him on the free throw line to earn it because he shoots terrible from the line.

I haven't talked about the LA/Denver match-up in a while and I have to admit that I was wrong. I thought that Denver was going to win because LA wasn't going to bring it. Now I think Denver is flat out better, and if they don't win, it will be either because they blow it like they did in game one or because Kobe takes it from them like he did in game three. Kobe isn't going to make me take everything I said about him back after one game, but if he continues to dominate in the crunch like he did last night, I might have to. He has a chance right now to throw himself into the stratosphere of great players and Kobe realizes how much is at stake for his career. There is no one on the court that wants it more than Kobe and you can see this during crunch time of games. It will take a superb effort to beat him, even from a better team. Compound Kobe's play with the mistakes they’re making and Denver may have an uphill climb. It’s clear that Carmelo will have no problem scoring this entire series but they need to get him the ball. The Nuggets have shown throughout this series they are the aggressors, ready to take it right at the Lakers but they need to finish games. I said two columns ago that Denver is capable of beating LA, but if the Lakers flip on the switch that Denver can’t take this series. However, I am convinced that Denver is capable of winning regardless of how LA plays; they are just more talented. But they need to play smart at the end of games and take care of Kobe.

NBA Eastern Conference Ramblings

(Editor’s Note: This column was written before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals…Honestly.)

We got it a week ago and now we get it again. That's right, another edition of Guy #2 NBA playoff ramblings. This iteration of the ramblings column is going to focus mainly on the Eastern Conference with a little Kobe bashing thrown in for good measure (I just can't help myself).

To breakdown the match-up between Orlando and Cleveland, we first have to mention one of the most interesting subplots. On one bench is Stan Van Gundy who many thought should have won Coach of the Year and on the other end is Mike “Caretaker of the Year” Brown.

This series is all going to revolve around two main questions. First, how will Mike Brown answer to Stan Van Gundy's small front court of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard? Second, how much help-defense will Orlando use to stop Lebron, and how much help will Cleveland use to stop Dwight Howard? This second question could end being the difference maker but we'll start with the small ball debate. We know from playoff history, especially with the Mavericks-Golden State round one series in 2007, that if you are the favorite you really shouldn't play into your opponent’s hands. But would going small if you’re Cleveland in this scenario really be playing into your opponents hands? I think Mike Brown needs to realize a couple of things: A) I have Lebron James on my team. So rather than thinking of how I can win this series, I need to NOT be thinking of ways I can lose this series. B) I have Lebron James on my team. Who on Orlando is going to stop him...HEDO TURKOGLU...RASHARD LEWIS...JJ REDICK? Yea, I can see that happening. C) Mike Brown, you can't out coach yourself, so don't even think about it.

I know I didn't answer the question but let me elaborate.

If you’re Cleveland, go with what got you here, but at the same time don't be afraid to go small. Coach based on feel and what's working. Lebron at the four might be your best line up, so don't be afraid to go with it. There are two main examples of how not to combat sneaky lineups that go small. One would be how the Boston Celtics played Orlando last round. They didn't really adapt to the small lineup and were left with Glen “Big Baby” Davis guarding Rashard Lewis in crunch time. Anderson Varejao might be more up to the challenge, but if he isn't you need to adjust, especially if you just won coach of the year and even more so if you look like Mr. Potato Head.

Another futile attempt at combating small ball was what Avery Johnson and the Mavericks did in 2007 against the Warriors. From the start of the series, they went small instead of playing the way they had all year. By the same token, if you’re Mike Brown, you're sending the wrong message to your team if you come out with Sasha Pavlovic, Wally Szczerbiak, or Daniel Gibson in the starting lineup in place of Ilgauskus or Varejao. Your best lineup to combat them going small might end up being small, but I think you may give Orlando the mental edge by saying: We can’t stop you with our normal lineup.

Of course this all comes down to my second question: How much help will Cleveland give to stop Howard, and how much help will Orlando give to stop Lebron, as both teams have virtually no answers for each player. This will be key because although both Lebron and Howard have immense skills, their true worth will be in creating offense for their teammates. Cleveland has the advantage here because as mentioned before, Orlando has no one who can guard Lebron so Orlando will need to help. This will free up Cleveland shooters, who will need to perform for the Cavs to advance. On the other hand, Cleveland should want Dwight Howard as Orlando's main option, because their three point shooters are deadly and as good as he is, Howard's offensive skills are underdeveloped.

Another thing before these ramblings end. Orlando won the season series 2-1 and in their last game on April 3rd, Orlando won by 29. They did shoot 48% from behind the line and Cleveland only shot 37% from the field, but you have to think that Orlando is comfortable with this match-up. They can play without fear and they know if they play to their ability they are capable of winning any game.

The big question in the end is who do I pick to win this series. The more I look at it the better Orlando looks on paper. But I think therein lies the problem... PARALYSIS BY ANALYSIS. I could probably talk myself into Orlando and make an interesting article about it, but why do that when Lebron is on the other team. As much as I think this is a tough match up for the Cavs dealing with the small lineup on paper, with Lebron, the Cavs are just better than they look on paper

Also in unrelated news, Kobe is not doing work, the refs are doing work for him. That's right I said it. Way to get an undeserved documentary about you and then have the refs give the game to you.

The Road Less Traveled

Going into the playoffs, everyone was more than sure that a collision course was set between LA and Cleveland, and to be honest we didn't really like the inevitability of it all. We forgot one thing however, this is the NBA. Isn't amazing supposed to happen? Isn't Houston supposed to push LA to seven games, even without their two stars? Isn't Lebron supposed to make it through the first round without even sweating out a less than double digit victory... I guess not. After two rounds, everyone, me included, is ready to coronate King James and label LA the third round underdogs to Denver... but as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend.”

If there is one thing that I learned about the NBA, it's that the playoffs are a grind and almost entirely dependent on match ups. Kobe and company had a terrible match up against a team that had a great defense to throw at them. As long as your team advances to the next round without injury, your season basically starts fresh. Yes, rest is important and getting better from nagging injuries is also. But so is being sharp and ready to play. We could argue for days the merits of not playing a couple of games the first two rounds and staying fresh and I'm sure that history would back us up. However, if you look just a year ago, Boston would give us a good argument for the contrary.

Everyone was doubting them in the earlier rounds because they were taken to seven games by the Hawks and Cavs. This may have seemed like a hindrance to Celtic title hopes but this gave the Celtic's big three much needed playoff reps together under pressure. It was almost like Doc Rivers, KG, Pierce, and company needed that shot in the arm to get them playing game seven basketball from then on.

After their series with the Rockets, now Kobe and this iteration of the Lakers know what it's like to experience a game seven and win. I know Houston was a wounded dog and I was overly critical of the Lakers for lacking the killer instinct to kick a dog when it's down. Hopefully, now they realize that they must play that way for all seven games against the Nuggets to have a chance.

More than anything this playoffs can serve as a case study to solve the argument of what is the best way to go through a playoff run? On the one hand is the Western Conference number one seeded Lakers who got almost as much as they could chew from Utah and Houston in their first two rounds. On the other hand is the heavily favored Cavs who have yet to play a close or meaningful game. It's a common theme among analyst that a team needs a loss or a bump in the road to make them ready for tough games down the stretch. The question then is do you want challenges and bumps in the road to keep you sharp and hungry like the Lakers? or do you want smooth sailing like the Cavs? This playoffs can go far to answer this question.

I have already said that I think LA loses to Denver but what if they don't. What if we do have the Kobe vs. Lebron, LA vs. Cleveland match up that everyone so desired? Then all these questions can be answered and we'll have a little bit better of an understanding of the NBA...

Or at least Vitamin Water will finally be able to answer the great debate between Kobe and Lebron.

Caretaker of the Year?

We were shocked when we turned on ESPN to find out Mike Brown was named NBA coach of the year. Mike Brown? Say what!?! The same guy who bears a striking resemblance to Mr. Potato Head? We don't think that Mike Brown is a bad coach by any means, but did he really do the best coaching job in the NBA this year?

What does Coach of the Year even mean anymore? Does it go to the coach on the team with the best record, or the coach of the team that shows the greatest improvement? How do you quantify the coaching aspect? The best coach of the year is next to worthless (a ridiculous claim but Guys Who Like Sports don't just make ridiculous claims, we back them up). In every other award, you can statistically determine the impact of the candidates. Mike Brown coached for Cleveland last year. He coached for them this year. Did he improve as a coach between these two seasons? Honestly, he did what he should have done. He let a great player flourish, he shouldn't get any extra credit. He did what he was supposed to.

Coaches are becoming the CEO's of NBA teams. Over the year, 8 coaches have been fired. Coaches take the blame when something goes wrong; and when something goes right, the credit goes to the players, rightfully so. Does Mike Brown really deserve an award for staying out of Lebron's way and only making him run two high screens with Ilgauskas a game. This is a players' league, coaches need to stay out of their star's way.

So what we are proposing is an award to bring to light the coach that did the worst job of caretaking and tried to over-coach. Terry Porter, we choose you. Thanks for ruining the Suns. Mike Dunleavy made a strong case for our award but who cares about the Clippers anyway. Our apologies to Malcolm in the Middle. To be in the running coaches need to have lasted more than 30 games, sorry Reggie Theus, even though you could have been up for this award in “Hang Time.”