Timely NBA Preview

Kobe/Lebron was almost a certainty at the beginning of the playoffs. The coronation of King James would be almost complete and Kobe could take his transformation to pure evil with a unanimous crowd favorite to go against. It would be like Darth Vader vs. Luke Skywalker (or Austin Powers vs. Dr. Evil for non nerds). But with Kobe leading 3-2 and Lebron down 3-2, there is an increasing possibility that it won't be LA/Cleveland, Kobe/Lebron, Good vs. Evil, Jack vs. Locke (Sorry, had to get a Lost reference in somehow.)

The question that remains is whether this would be all that bad for the NBA if the LA/Cleveland match-up doesn’t happen. While there is still the chance that the Lakers and or the Cavs still make it in, what if both don’t make it? From a basketball perspective, Orlando and Denver have the ability to be every bit as compelling as LA and Cleveland. Putting Kobe and Lebron aside, Denver and Orlando both play much more interesting styles than LA and Cleveland. As far as LA is concerned, I think we all have seen plenty of the triangle offense, and with Cleveland the same can be said for the pick and roll.

Over the playoffs, the Orlando Magic's offense has grown on me. They really spread the court out and almost always make the extra pass to the open guy. Denver is interesting in their own right with the cast of characters they have. They may be running the same high screen and roll with Chauncey Billups, or isolation play for ‘Melo, but somehow it’s more interesting when the other guys out there sport faux-halks, lipstick tattoos, and little infants during post game press conferences.

As far as star power’s concerned, this is where the NBA will take a hit short term. The ratings will most likely slide a bit without their big guns. (and Nike surely won't be happy when they can't have 10 Kobe vs. Lebron Puppet adds.) But with Orlando and Denver, the league will have the ability to promote two of it's budding stars Dwight Howard and Carmelo Anthony. Howard is ready to go to the level of Lebron, Kobe and Wade, while Carmelo is ready to be in the conversation. While the NBA won't get the same hype and mileage out of Carmelo and Dwight this year as they would out of Kobe and Lebron, having them in the finals would definitely pay dividends in the future.

Whether David Stern wants to admit it or not, the NBA has become a star’s league. Over the years, the league and networks have been more focused on promoting individuals, rather than teams. Carmelo and Dwight are on the verge of bursting the superstar bubble, and if they’re both in the finals, then they’d get that much more exposure. If the finals play out with competitive contests, future Dwight/Carmelo match-ups in the future would have more hype and exposure. Having two more stars vs. furthering the Kobe/Lebron hype might actually be a positive for the NBA. And ... Kobe and Lebron can’t face off every game (Depsite ESPN’s best wishes.)

The Road Less Traveled

Going into the playoffs, everyone was more than sure that a collision course was set between LA and Cleveland, and to be honest we didn't really like the inevitability of it all. We forgot one thing however, this is the NBA. Isn't amazing supposed to happen? Isn't Houston supposed to push LA to seven games, even without their two stars? Isn't Lebron supposed to make it through the first round without even sweating out a less than double digit victory... I guess not. After two rounds, everyone, me included, is ready to coronate King James and label LA the third round underdogs to Denver... but as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend.”

If there is one thing that I learned about the NBA, it's that the playoffs are a grind and almost entirely dependent on match ups. Kobe and company had a terrible match up against a team that had a great defense to throw at them. As long as your team advances to the next round without injury, your season basically starts fresh. Yes, rest is important and getting better from nagging injuries is also. But so is being sharp and ready to play. We could argue for days the merits of not playing a couple of games the first two rounds and staying fresh and I'm sure that history would back us up. However, if you look just a year ago, Boston would give us a good argument for the contrary.

Everyone was doubting them in the earlier rounds because they were taken to seven games by the Hawks and Cavs. This may have seemed like a hindrance to Celtic title hopes but this gave the Celtic's big three much needed playoff reps together under pressure. It was almost like Doc Rivers, KG, Pierce, and company needed that shot in the arm to get them playing game seven basketball from then on.

After their series with the Rockets, now Kobe and this iteration of the Lakers know what it's like to experience a game seven and win. I know Houston was a wounded dog and I was overly critical of the Lakers for lacking the killer instinct to kick a dog when it's down. Hopefully, now they realize that they must play that way for all seven games against the Nuggets to have a chance.

More than anything this playoffs can serve as a case study to solve the argument of what is the best way to go through a playoff run? On the one hand is the Western Conference number one seeded Lakers who got almost as much as they could chew from Utah and Houston in their first two rounds. On the other hand is the heavily favored Cavs who have yet to play a close or meaningful game. It's a common theme among analyst that a team needs a loss or a bump in the road to make them ready for tough games down the stretch. The question then is do you want challenges and bumps in the road to keep you sharp and hungry like the Lakers? or do you want smooth sailing like the Cavs? This playoffs can go far to answer this question.

I have already said that I think LA loses to Denver but what if they don't. What if we do have the Kobe vs. Lebron, LA vs. Cleveland match up that everyone so desired? Then all these questions can be answered and we'll have a little bit better of an understanding of the NBA...

Or at least Vitamin Water will finally be able to answer the great debate between Kobe and Lebron.

Denver-LA Premature Breakdown

With the Dallas vs. Denver series at a premature end and not heading back to Dallas (at least Mark Cuban won't have to give up a luxury suite to K-Mart's mom) and the LA vs. Houston series almost certainly ending tonight in Houston (do I really believe this or am I trying to jinx the Lakers?) it's time to run my Denver vs. LA preview prematurely because that's what I do.

After seeing a few more games I have basically come to two conclusions. Number One, the Denver Nuggets are more than capable of beating the LA Lakers in a seven game series. Number two, if LA flips on the switch, they aren't. I know the two above statements sound contradictory, but bear with me.

Unlike Houston, Denver will have a much tougher time matching up with LA defensively. Since George Karl has been Denver's coach they have always had a tough time on the defensive end. This year really isn't any different. The Chauncey Billups trade has brought over some of the team mentality from Detroit and kept most of Denver's knuckleheads in line; however, LA is so talented offensively it will probably take an extraordinary effort from Denver to hold the Lakers in check.

Denver will not only face problems in their overall lack of defensive chemistry but also in every defensive match up. Houston had Battier and Artest to give Kobe all he could handle. Dahntay Jones is a vastly improved player but he is nowhere near the defensive level of Battier or Artest. The Rockets also didn't have the answers when LA went small because they didn't have the ability to leave anyone on the court wide open when Odom and Gasol were playing in the post. When Bynum, Gasol, and Odom were in they could make Odom beat them from the outside but once LA went small, Gasol and Odom were too talented with interior passing and scoring to be stopped by Houston. This trend should repeat itself in the Western Conference Finals as Gasol and Odom will be too quick, too athletic and too good for Nene and Kenyon Martin if they continue with their smaller lineup (which LA should). Compound this by the fact that they play far worse team defense so the help and defensive schemes won't be there and Kobe, Odom, and Gasol should all be in for big production this series. To have a chance Denver is going to have to make the other guys (Ariza, Farmar, Vujajic, Fisher, Bynum, Walton) beat them while trying their best to contain Kobe, Gasol and Odom. With the Lakers' offensive superiority they will be next to impossible to beat IF they turn on the switch defensively.

We have yet to look at how Denver's offense matches up with LA's defense but I really don't think we have to spend that much time on it. It basically comes down to this: do the Lakers turn on the switch or not. They clearly have superior talent, superior coaching but do they have superior chemistry? If Kobe is able to have his alpha dog competitive nature rub off on his team at all, that will be enough to do better than Denver. But can Kobe do this? I have written and maintained all along that he can't. He is a great scorer, talent, etc but this LA team has become too overconfident and complacent. The fact that a supposed all-time great like Kobe has let this happen to his team does not bode well for the Lakers. If Kobe rises to the occasion, elevates his team and proves me wrong, I think LA will dominate this series. The two keys for them defensively are to keep JR Smith and Carmello Anthony in check and not let the tempo of the game get out of hand. If the Lakers can do those two things, big IF, I can see them taking this series in 6 games or less.

I have mentioned multiple times in this column that the Lakers' need to turn on the switch to beat Denver. I just don't see this happening. The Lakers have all the talent in the world but they just don't have IT. By it, I mean that team chemistry that just takes great teams and makes them unbeatable. They gave Utah hope and let them hang around, then, they did the same with Houston. As good and as talented as they are, it just looks like they are working out there, not having fun.
On the other side of the ball, there is a young hungry star ready to be mentioned with his draft class (Lebron and D-Wade) and I think his performance in this series will put him on their level. Carmello will turn into the star of this series as Denver pulls off the huge upset and takes LA in six games.

NBA Western Conference Ramblings

“There is absolutely nothing to say after that.” That was Mark Cuban's twitter last night referring to the no call on Carmello Anthony's three pointer.

Now that is how you effectively use twitter. You see, what he did here was display his feelings via a short little quote for everyone to see what he was thinking/doing at that point in time. Not that I have a twitter or know how to tweet but if I did, I probably would have tweeted the same thing.

I want everyone to see exactly what I wrote prior to Game 4 of the Houston vs. Los Angeles series while I was on route to watch my brother play lacrosse in New Jersey.

"With Yao Ming's broken foot and the worst last-second missed call that I can remember, round two of the Western Conference playoffs is all but over. Just pencil in LA and Denver for the Western Conference finals. It's to bad, because these two semifinals match-ups had a lot of promise. Competition in the NBA is so match up driven, and Dallas and Houston both matched up well against Denver and LA; giving these series the potential to be great. Injuries are unfortunate, but what happened in Dallas was egregious. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but the NBA and its refs must really hate Dallas. In a game that is as subjective as basketball, it's easy to see what you want to see, and psychologically, it's hard not to have a rooting interest. So I have come to the conclusion that no one in the NBA likes Mark Cuban, especially the refs. This trend will only continue because as he moans and complains more and more, refs will continue to be biased against him. No one likes complainers. Just look at Melissa Rivers on Celebrity Apprentice. Bad example...I shouldn't even admit to watching that, but let's roll with it.

I know Dallas can be blamed partly because they had an opportunity to close out the game, but instead put it in the refs hands down the stretch. Even so, the refs blew that game plain and simple. In that situation, they should be looking for a foul knowing Dallas had a foul to give. The Tim Donaghy incident blew open the NBA's already well-known officiating problems over the years to the public, and calls like last night's make you think that the league is far from solving its officiating woes. There needs to be some level of public accountability for refs. If players are getting fined and being assessed flagrant fouls after the fact, then NBA refs should be fined and suspended publicly for missed calls. The ref that blew the call in the game last night should be suspended and fined pay for one game.

Now with Dallas in a 3-0 hole and Houston down 2-1 without Yao, we can almost start to break down the match-up between LA and Denver. Actually, this is the NBA, "where amazing happens," so I don't want to be on the record as a complete idiot and say Houston has no chance. So here is my official stance on the rest of the Houston vs. LA series: “Houston has a real outside chance but it will be really tough to win three of 4 especially with 2 games being played in LA.” The only way that Houston can come back in this series is to go small with Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry in the back court, and take advantage of the suspect point guards of LA. I honestly can't see this happening so I'm going to go ahead and break down the Denver/LA series... because I can."

Then I go on to prematurely break down the LA/Denver series like an idiot, which I will save for a future column. I didn't get to see all of the Houston's upset of LA, but here are the few things I took away from the game.

Games like Houston's upset of LA in game 4 are why we watch sports. It goes to show, you can never count anyone out. As a complete unbiased fan, I felt proud of how Houston took the game right to LA, despite having the deck stacked against them. In the end, heart, character and toughness can trump talent any day.

Further, this is another hit on Kobe's case as a top tier all-time NBA player. He is probably the best, if not second best, player in the world right now, but I think he is in the second tier all time. To be considered among the first tier of all time great players, you make sure your team handles a wounded team like Houston, missing their top two players, and don't give them any life. You also don't blow twenty point leads in must win games during the NBA finals like Kobe did last year. You also don't demand to be traded when your team isn't putting the players around you that you want. I'm not saying Kobe isn't a great player, because he clearly is; he scored 81 points in a game. But there is so much going against Kobe that I don't put him on the level of the Jordan, Bird, Magic and dare I say Lebron. If you're Kobe, you just can't let these things happen. That's what separates the greatest ever, from just great.